COVID-19 vaccination modelling tools

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is critical that Member States are able to make informed policy decisions to reduce the pandemic’s impact on public health. Key available interventions include a range of newly licensed COVID-19 vaccines, together with public health and social measures.

These vaccines may differ in their performance characteristics. In addition, the sociodemographic profiles of countries can vary dramatically. It is important that every country allocates available vaccines optimally according to their local situation, and as COVID-19 vaccine availability improves, adjusts their national vaccination strategy accordingly.

WHO/Europe works with partners to provide national health authorities with modelling tools to better understand the projected health and economic impact that alternative vaccine introduction strategies, in combination with ongoing non-pharmaceutical interventions, could have on the disease and economic burdens faced by their populations.

The tools are intended to guide and support short- and medium-term planning and informed policy decisions regarding optimizing the use of available COVID-19 vaccines.

COVID-19 vaccine programme modelling tool

This age-structured susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed (SEIR) compartmental model has an expanded health-care component. The model inputs include key epidemiological parameters that determine the spread and severity of the disease, as well as context-specific inputs: demography, population contact patterns and health-care capacity. Vaccination introductions can be modelled alongside relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. This tool was developed by Imperial College London.

Online demonstration: COVID-19 vaccine programme modelling tool

COVID-19 vaccination prioritization decision support modelling tool

This model uses CovidM, a compartmental SEIR-type transmission dynamic model that accounts for symptomatic, pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, as well as vaccination processes. It is parameterized using data on demography and social contact patterns for the countries of the WHO European Region. This tool was developed by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.