United States: Boston conducts a unique ‘negative’ HEAT assessment

In the city of Boston, university researchers conducted a very interesting HEAT study. It was unique in that it looked at the potential negative impacts of a proposed policy change on physical activity.

Boston had proposed fare increases and service cuts to its public transportation system. Researchers used the HEAT and other health impact assessment tools to quantify the impacts of the proposed cuts.

The researchers estimated the number of people who would switch from public transportation to driving after the proposed cuts. This was based on the assumption that people who shift from public transportation to driving decrease their walking by an average of 8 minutes per weekday, or an average of 40 minutes per week, per person.

The HEAT found that the proposed changes would lead to an additional 9–14 deaths per year. When this was added to other potential costs, it was found that fare increases and service cuts to Boston’s public transportation system would have resulted in costs that exceeded the $161 million budget shortfall that the proposed scenarios sought to address.

The calculations enabled stakeholders to advocate for more modest fare increases and service cuts, and these were eventually adopted by decision-makers.